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PostPosted: Tue, 11-09-07, 10:07 GMT 
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I found this visionary article today:
What may happen in the next hundred years
(The Ladies´Home Journal, anno 1901).

It is an interesting read.
While most of the technological innovations were "in the cards" at the time, like television and air conditioning, people usually don´t envision future applications to actually change anything. One of the best examples is the point about ready-cooked meals, which is one of the most defining traits of our "modern" world, but would have been laughably expensive and unsanitary in 1901.

Of course, there are some very unfamiliar ideas, too... I particularily like the notion of pneumatic tubes going everywhere.

And then there is the slightly disturbing lack of regard for nature that shines through....

- rthorvald

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PostPosted: Tue, 11-09-07, 10:58 GMT 
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Yet...

Laotian Pizzas were not forseen, I am afraid.. :lol: :lol: :idea:

Bye Fridger

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PostPosted: Tue, 11-09-07, 13:22 GMT 
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t00fri wrote:
Yet...

Laotian Pizzas were not forseen, I am afraid.. :lol: :lol: :idea:

Bye Fridger


Sorry Fridger, but what mean "laotian"? What are the ingredients? :roll:

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PostPosted: Tue, 11-09-07, 13:30 GMT 
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Indeed, those visions were quite good!

Are we able to do the same for the next century? (I'm not sure...)


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PostPosted: Tue, 11-09-07, 14:55 GMT 
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ElChristou wrote:
Indeed, those visions were quite good!

Are we able to do the same for the next century? (I'm not sure...)


I think that will be tough... Things change much, much faster now.

but how about some guesses for the next *ten* years?

Here is one: affordable home 3D printers will put simple consumer products (like paper cups, nails or reading glasses) in the same spot the music industry are today.

Others?

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PostPosted: Tue, 11-09-07, 16:36 GMT 
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10 years? I suppose digital life will become the norm:

- The use of paper for mass publication replaced by "digital paper" + download pay service... (10 years? perhaps 15...)
- Physical support for movie and music distribution will disappear (all transactions via red)
- Completely integrated digital solutions for home entertainment (1 device (possibly screen) connected to the red via an UI kind iTunes)
- No more HD in personal computers, all data stored in the red (Tx to Ultra high-speed bandwidth, holographic storage (or else), etc..)
- Domotic will increase (computer controlled home: security, temperature, light, music, "intelligent" fridge, etc...)


Japan:

All the above +:

- Domestic robots will be affordable (better 15/20 years)(in relation with domotic)


- full electrical cars (no, better 20 years)
- Incandescent light bulb won't exist anymore


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PostPosted: Tue, 11-09-07, 21:19 GMT 
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All that it will Big Brother will work.

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PostPosted: Tue, 11-09-07, 23:38 GMT 
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Playing the part of the alarmist here,
There are some who believe that some form of AI that is "ultraintelligent" (quoting I.J. Good here) may come into being pretty soon, bring about a "technological singularity". The term "ultraintelligent" is open to interpretation, but Good probably meant being able to adapt and learn more flexibly and faster than humans. These AI would also possess enough intelligence to design improved versions of themselves.

Pretty radical? Consider just the advances in hardware: Less than 20 years ago noone thought that everyone would be carrying cellphones (just watch any 80's era movie set in the future and you'll notice). 5 years ago graphics cards had <100 megatexels per second fill rate; now it's more like >39,000 megatexel/sec which is over x390 improvement in just 5 years. 1 Teraflop was considered fast in the year 2000, now 1 Petaflop is (almost x1000 improvement).


Last edited by dirkpitt on Wed, 12-09-07, 0:26 GMT, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed, 12-09-07, 0:13 GMT 
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dirkpitt wrote:
...There are some who believe that some form of AI that is "ultraintelligent" (quoting I.J. Good here) may come into being pretty soon, bring about a "technological singularity". The term "ultraintelligent" is open to interpretation, but Good probably meant being able to adapt and learn more flexibly and faster than humans. These AI would also possess enough intelligence to design improved versions of themselves...


Yep, I read something like this... then we have the choice, Terminator or Matrix? :wink:


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PostPosted: Wed, 12-09-07, 0:29 GMT 
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ElChristou wrote:
dirkpitt wrote:
...There are some who believe that some form of AI that is "ultraintelligent" (quoting I.J. Good here) may come into being pretty soon, bring about a "technological singularity". The term "ultraintelligent" is open to interpretation, but Good probably meant being able to adapt and learn more flexibly and faster than humans. These AI would also possess enough intelligence to design improved versions of themselves...


Yep, I read something like this... then we have the choice, Terminator or Matrix? :wink:


From Terminator to Matrix? What should happen when "these AI would also possess enough intelligence to design improved versions of themselves" find themselves dependent from electricity to live?

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PostPosted: Wed, 12-09-07, 1:56 GMT 
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ElChristou wrote:
then we have the choice, Terminator or Matrix? :wink:


From intelligent supercomputers to thinking ones might be a bigger leap than we think. I have no doubt that dataprocessing capacity will reach a level where it could potentially be possible in a few years, but that does not mean self-aware machines: that can only happen if self-awareness is a property it is possible to cause, and there are no indication it is (or isn´t) since we as yet don´t know why self-awareness works.

Personally, i think a paradigm shift on this scale will come from ways a real biotech/nanotech revolution may change the world in all small things long before Skynet has the chance to arrive... Just imagine, for example, your "the little chemist" set at the toy store undergoing a similar (in scope) development as computers has done since the 80s: one could grow or maybe print out laotian pizzas on demand ;-)

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PostPosted: Wed, 12-09-07, 3:57 GMT 
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rthorvald wrote:
one could grow or maybe print out laotian pizzas on demand ;-)


Pfui! Laotian pizzas are wayyy overrated. :P


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PostPosted: Wed, 12-09-07, 11:32 GMT 
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rthorvald wrote:
...Personally, i think a paradigm shift on this scale will come from ways a real biotech/nanotech revolution may change the world in all small things long before Skynet has the chance to arrive... Just imagine, for example, your "the little chemist" set at the toy store undergoing a similar (in scope) development as computers has done since the 80s: one could grow or maybe print out laotian pizzas on demand...


Nanotech will clearly change many aspect of the near future, but I don't think at this point...
What I'm curious to see will be the application for medicine (against cancer for example)... About medicine, for the next 10 years, I suppose gene therapy and in general genetic engineering will also gain popularity...


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PostPosted: Wed, 12-09-07, 13:12 GMT 
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Nanotech can develop nonopills which can tell to everyone what may do in a manner much more deceitful than the drugs, that is, acting in a way more pavlovian on aspects unrelated with the desire of mere assumption of it, but with the desire of assumption of other; for example a commercial product, one mark (company) of drugs than other.

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PostPosted: Thu, 13-09-07, 22:39 GMT 
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fenerit wrote:
Nanotech can develop nonopills which can tell to everyone what may do in a manner much more deceitful than the drugs, that is, acting in a way more pavlovian on aspects


In that case, i can see new kinds of advertising popping up:

Don´t get new ideas you don´t trust - buy
BrainFreeze MemeGuard
Inoculate your family today - buy NanoScrubâ„¢
*Will only protect against selected religions and trademarks


- rthorvald :-D

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